#71 Orbital Odyssey: India’s ambitions in the era of commercial space stations
India’s ambitions in the era of commercial space stations, Fuelling Innovation: decoding India's Innovation Fund in the union budget
Today, Aditya Ramanathan discusses India’s space station project and the competition it faces.
Sourabh Todi highlights why India’s innovation fund proposal is a good step in promoting research and development.
Also,
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Antariksh Matters: India’s ambitions in the era of commercial space stations
— Aditya Ramanathan
This post is adapted from a new Takshashila Discussion Document titled “Human Spaceflight: Indian Goals & Global Ambitions”. Click here to read the full document.
On 17 October 2023, India set itself a deadline of 2035 to have a “Bharatiya Antariksha Station” or Indian Space Station in orbit. While ISRO is well-positioned to achieve this goal, an Indian station in 2035 could find itself in a crowded market for orbital habitats.
American and Chinese plans for future space station operations have clear implications for how India pursues its ambitions. It will be up to decision makers both in Delhi and ISRO’s headquarters to decide whether India will pursue its space station programme alone or seek the more efficient path of international cooperation.
While the International Space Station is expected to remain in operation until about 2031, it is slated to be replaced by commercial habitats as well as an expanded Tiangong Chinese station. Here’s a quick summary of the space station projects being planned or already underway.
China’s Tiangong
After experimenting with two short-lived orbital space labs, China began to assemble its modular Tiangong space station in April 2021. This started with the Tianhe habitation module entering orbit. In June of that year, a crew of three docked with the module and spent 90 days in it. The following year, the remaining two modules, the Wentian and Mengtian lab modules, docked with the Tianhe. China now maintains a continuous human presence on the Tiangong space station.
The Tiangong was thought to be complete with the assembly of three modules. However, in October 2023, the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST) indicated that there were plans to add three more modules to the Tiangong and invite crews from other countries. CAST also indicated that the station was expected to have a life of 15 years. If all goes according to plan, the expanded Tiangong will still be in orbit when India’s space station becomes operational.
American Commercial Space Stations
All substantial plans for commercial Earth-orbit habitation are being developed by US-based companies. This is not only because these companies enjoy significant technological advantages but also because NASA has institutionalised a programme to support the development of what it calls commercial low Earth orbit destinations (CLDs) from which customers (including NASA itself) can purchase services. NASA’s stated goal is to “implement an orderly transition from current International Space Station (ISS) operations to these new CLDs.” By nurturing a commercialised LEO ecosystem, NASA expects to save $1.3 billion a year by 2031 and $1.8 billion by 2033.
NASA supports three CLD projects. One is Axiom Space. The first segment of this planned station is scheduled to launch in 2026, and will dock with the ISS, serving as an additional module. Subsequent launches will add more modules, following which the Axiom station is to separate from the ISS and become a fully functional independent orbital habitat. Axiom’s approach allows it to use the ISS as a testing and validation platform. Its marketing literature also vaunts Axiom’s ability to seamlessly “adopt and service the multinational user base of the ISS”, suggesting the company will be focused on supporting the kind of scientific experiments carried out on the ISS rather than other applications such as tourism.
Another CLD partner is Blue Origin, which has received $130 million in initial funding from NASA for its Orbital Reef station, which it plans to operate in collaboration with Sierra Space. In contrast to Axiom, Blue Origin describes Orbital Reef as a “mixed-use business park” that can accommodate up to 10 people who may be engaged in a variety of undertakings, whether those be a research lab or a hotel. As part of its business development efforts, Blue Origin has reached out to organisations around the world, including India.
The third CLD partner is Nanoracks, which has received $160 million in initial funding from NASA for its Starlab station. Nanoracks is partnering with Voyager Space, Northrop Grumman, and Airbus for building and operating this small, single module station that will house up to four people. Like Axiom, the station will focus on ISS customers and related opportunities for states engaged in science diplomacy. Its stated purpose is to “conduct investigations, advance scientific discovery, and foster industrial activity in microgravity.”
All three CLD projects feature some level of vertical integration, bringing together companies that operate launch systems and capsules with the planned space stations. Axiom has an existing relationship with SpaceX for its Crew Dragon spacecraft. Blue Origin is partnering with Boeing to provide crew transport on Starliners and with Sierra Space to move freight on Dream Chasers. Blue Origin’s New Glenns launch systems will put these spacecrafts into orbit. Starlab has also concluded a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Space Agency (ESA) that opens up the possibility of future European cargo and crew capsules providing transport to the station. One of the Starlab companies, Voyager Space, has also signed an MoU with ISRO “to explore opportunities for the utilization of ISRO’s Gaganyaan crewed spacecraft”.
It is evident that the development of CLDs entails considerable technical risk. Many of the platforms and systems mentioned above are still in the testing or development stage. For example, Boeing’s Starliner has experienced multiple delays, and its first crewed test is planned only in early 2024. Similarly, Blue Origin’s New Glenn launch system is yet to complete testing and receive regulatory approval. This is over and above the risks and uncertainties involved in building new space stations, not least of which will be the likely cost overruns.
Business risks will be at least as significant. The market for low Earth orbit services is likely to be limited to a handful of paying customers. The main clients will likely be national space agencies, government labs, and private sector research and development initiatives. Tourism and media companies such as film crews can provide additional business.
What Comes Next?
Despite the potential challenges, CLDs present an opportunity for India. As we have argued before in this newsletter, India must not seek to reinvent the wheel (or the space station module). Instead, it must actively collaborate in building commercial space station modules and use its upcoming Gaganyaan spacecraft to ferry crews to and from CLDs. Space station competition could become stiff in the 2030s. It’s up to India to play its cards carefully.
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Cyberpolitik: Fuelling Innovation: decoding India's Innovation Fund in the union budget
— Sourabh Todi
India announced a few measures during the Union Budget presented to the parliament on February 1 to promote research and development in the country. The big ticket announcement is that of an ‘Innovation Fund’ of one lakh crore. This fund will provide 50-year loans with low or nil interest rates to private sector companies for scaling up research and innovation in the sunrise sectors. As explained by Union IT Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, the government aims to enable startups to create products. The fund is expected to screen certain projects with the potential to be commercialised. Along with the recently created National Research Foundation, these two initiatives can help bridge the increasingly widening gap in primary research and development along with avenues for bringing ideas from the lab to the market, i.e. their commercialisation.
However, the specifics of how the proposed innovation fund will work and its rules and structure are yet to be finalised. Furthermore, there isn’t clarity on the duration of this commitment. Is the fund on tap for the foreseeable future or for a limited period? If the latter, what would happen for projects that have longer gestation periods? It would be crucial to institutionalise a fair and transparent mechanism for tapping into this fund, especially for emerging startups and young entrepreneurs. It is also important to spread this fund across sectors such as defence research, biotechnology, renewable energy, quantum systems, additive manufacturing etc. These aspects must be factored in while firming up the final contours of the fund.
India needs sustained focus on research, development, and commercialisation to compete with established players like the United States, South Korea, and Japan and emerging players like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, and Brazil, among others. Hopefully, the fund will see the light of the day soon enough.
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