#95 From Code to Combat
Ukraine’s Use of AI in the Battlefield; The Union Budget Proposes a Critical Minerals Mission
Today, Adya Madhavan briefly describes why Ukraine’s use of Artificial Intelligence on the battlefield provides valuable lessons for countries seeking to leverage this technology in their militaries. Arindam Goswami follows last week’s edition on the Budget 2024-25 with a primer on the Union government’s newly announced Critical Minerals Mission.
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Matsyanyaa x Military Matters: Ukraine’s Use of AI in the Battlefield
— Adya Madhavan
Ukraine doesn't have the luxury of worrying about the ethics of deploying autonomous technologies. If the alternatives before it are a) to lose this war against a numerically and logistically stronger force or b) to deploy technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) on the battlefield that may inspire some moral quandaries, the choice is a no-brainer.
There are recent reports that Ukraine has been working on AI-powered drone systems to be deployed against Russian invasion forces. Technologies, such as drone systems augmented with AI, are now an essential cog of modern asymmetric warfare, providing countries with evidently weaker military and strategic capabilities the ability to tilt the battlefield in their favour. In most indicators, Russia severely outmatched Ukraine in terms of conventional military capabilities. For instance, Ukraine's entire aircraft fleet is a mere 7.6 percent of Russia's air power, not to mention the sheer manpower advantage the latter has over the former. For nation-states like Ukraine, the potential to compensate for this weakness with technologies that can reduce the number of human actors or expensive conventional equipment is likely a game-changer.
Russia, too, is working to develop advanced technologies, including AI for military use, and already uses drones in their combat.
According to reports, Ukraine is already using AI on several fronts. AI-equipped drones are being used for terrain mapping and detecting land mines. Decision-making still rests in the hands of human actors despite AI being increasingly used for data analysis and reconnaissance using satellite imagery and geospatial data. However, this could change very quickly.
But why is AI such a massive deal if drones already provide this advantage to Ukraine? Remotely piloted FPV drones, used for ISR, terrain mapping and various other functions, are vulnerable to signal jamming, which cuts the connection between drones and their pilots. Autonomous AI-equipped drones can help combat this significant countermeasure since they can now identify targets and fly themselves to them without human input. Countermeasures like signal jamming will be rendered ineffective since there is essentially no mission-critical communication with drone pilots.
Additionally, Ukraine is in the process of developing drone swarms that can work in tandem and identify and attack targets in coordination with each other. Videos verified by the New York Times depict testing of drones that can locate, follow, and attack targets autonomously, as well as guns equipped with AI-powered targeting where a human actor far from the battlefield simply has to pull the trigger remotely. In addition to saving countless lives by removing humans from several functions that render them vulnerable to attack, this military use-case for AI is potentially highly scalable. Human pilots struggle to coordinate operations using multiple drones, but AI can effectively deploy hundreds of drones at once, leading to an exponential increase in capabilities while maintaining situational awareness.
Beyond what is already being utilised or developed, AI has the potential to be implemented in many facets of combat and battlefield operations– both on the ground as well as behind the scenes. In terms of functions directly linked to battle, there are many possibilities, from AI-driven targeting systems mounted on various autonomous vehicles to automated surveillance and reconnaissance that can continuously monitor vast areas hostile to troop presence. Decision Support Systems assisted by artificial intelligence can help simulate and analyse multiple scenarios to assess plausible outcomes.
AI can also supplement logistics and battlefield medicine, using predictive analysis to triage the wounded or help optimise supply chain logistics when resources are scarce. Autonomous vehicles and drones can deliver supplies and evacuate people in circumstances that are too dangerous for soldiers. Conflicts today call for inventive solutions to persisting problems, and Ukraine is providing almost real-time examples of how new technologies can be deployed and adopted under challenging circumstances.
Policymakers and international organisations alike have called for restrictions on using and deploying autonomous technologies. There is a certain distrust associated with the prospect of machines in the driver's seat. Machines also do not lend themselves well to operations that require capturing contested territory or those that are tasked with winning the hearts and minds of a populace.
However, using nascent technologies may be the only way for Ukraine to combat a stronger, more powerful Russia. In the long run, the governance of AI-augmented technologies on the battlefield will be essential. But for Ukraine, coming up with innovative and cost-effective solutions to a rapidly adapting Russian force may be the difference between winning and losing a war that has been going on for over eight hundred days. These are important lessons for countries seeking to develop their military capabilities for the future as they make difficult tradeoffs between investing in conventional military capacity or more emergent areas.
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Technomachy: The Union Budget Proposes a Critical Minerals Mission
— Arindam Goswami
The Union Budget 2024-25 has proposed a novel Critical Minerals Mission (CMM) designed to strengthen India's independence in these vital resources. The initiative focuses on three primary goals: first, boosting their domestic production; second, encouraging recycling; and third, securing mineral assets abroad.
This mission is squarely focused on critical elements essential for developing clean energy technologies, such as copper, lithium, nickel, and cobalt. These minerals are also integral to various sectors, including wind power, electrical infrastructure, and electric vehicles. With the global shift towards sustainable energy gaining momentum, the demand for these resources is set to increase significantly. The CMM is part of the Union government's strategy to meet this rising demand.
Currently, the global supply of critical minerals is heavily concentrated, with China being a dominant player in both production and processing. China controls about 80% of the global supply chain for rare earth elements. This concentration has led to vulnerabilities in global supply chains, as evidenced by recent disruptions and price volatility. India, like many other countries, has been seeking to diversify its sources of these crucial resources.
The CMM, therefore, has an international dimension in addition to domestic capacity-building. Last year, the government identified 30 critical minerals, including rare earth elements, graphite, and various metals vital for high-tech industries. India relies heavily on imports for most critical minerals, with a few exceptions, such as copper, gallium, graphite, cadmium, phosphorus, potash, and titanium. Building on this, the Union government seems to be actively seeking international collaborations to strengthen its critical minerals supply chain. Partnerships with resource-rich countries like Australia and participation in initiatives such as the Mineral Security Partnership (MSP) could be key to building resiliency in the supply chains for these minerals.
Alongside partnerships, the government also plans to auction offshore mining blocks, expanding on previous exploration activities to diversify India's mineral sources and lessen reliance on imports. It aligns with recent legislative reforms, such as the Mines and Minerals (Development & Regulation) Amendment Bill 2023, which facilitates the granting of exploration licenses for deep-seated and critical minerals.
Historically, however, India's natural resource auctions have faced challenges, including issues of transparency, corruption, and inefficiencies, which have undermined public trust and economic potential. Properly managed auctions can attract substantial investment, foster competitive pricing, and ensure that the benefits of these resources are maximised for national development. Given the strategic importance of these minerals for India's clean energy and high-tech sectors, providing a robust and transparent auction process is crucial to the government's strategy.
Finally, the Budget also proposed a blanket exemption on basic customs duty on 25 critical minerals, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earths. These minerals are essential for nuclear energy, renewable energy, space, defence, and telecommunications, among other sectors. This initiative is anticipated to significantly boost the processing and refining of these minerals and help secure their availability. Before this, India imposed a 5-10 percent customs duty on critical minerals.
As we all know, an announcement and a promise of funds do not necessarily translate into robust policy. The CMM is an encouraging first step, but how it integrates with enabling policies in sectors dependent on critical minerals (the electronics and green energy sectors, etc) is something to keep an eye on.
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What We're Reading (or Listening to)
[Policy Paper] India’s Climb up the Innovation Ladder: Policy Enablers and Impediments, by Sarthak Pradhan and Pranay Kotasthane
[Journal Article] Deterrence in the Age of Hybrid Threats, by Amit Gaur
[Video Podcast] “India Must Copy This From China To Stay Ahead!” Manoj Kewalramani | Neon Show, ft. Manoj Kewalramani
[Opinion] India is well placed to become the 'next China' and drive global growth, by Amit Kumar
Insightful Adya!