#154 Weapons Systems in West Asia
In this edition of Technopolitik, Adya Madhavan examines some of the drones and missiles used in the ongoing war in West Asia.
The world has tentatively watched the recent escalation in West Asia. The war between Israel and Iran has profound implications for the people of Iran, the strategic calculus in the region, and the wider global energy and crude oil market. However, beyond their own material and strategic interests, nations have watched carefully as weapons systems are being battle-tested in real time. Most of the conflict has been restricted to aerial strikes using uncrewed aerial vehicles and ballistic and cruise missiles. As a result, it is often hard to confirm the exact numbers of vectors involved since it is in every country’s interests to portray their air defences as robust and impenetrable. However, we can write with some certainty about the kinds of systems used.
The United States initially relied on missile strikes in its onslaught on Iran. The PrSM (Precision Strike Missile) was fired in combat for the first time. The PrSM is a relatively newer system, known for being harder to intercept due to its speed. The US also used other missiles such as the Tomahawk Block V with an upgraded navigation system, and the AGM-158 JASSM-Er, an air-launched cruise missile. The US also operationalised various drones including the Low-cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System (LUCAS). The LUCAS is a class of UCAVs that was reportedly developed by reverse-engineering the Iranian Shahed-136. At around 35,000$ per-unit, it is a relatively cost-effective option in the United States’ arsenal and carries an explosive payload of 18kg. Subsequent to the significant deterioration of Iran’s air defences, the US has also resorted to using high-volume bombs instead of more expensive missiles.
In its initial strikes on Iran, Israel largely used the Blue Sparrow ballistic missile, which is launched from F-15s and then the LORA– which is a quasi-ballistic missile, to target Iran’s military assets. Israel has also used a range of drones (spanning from long-endurance strike and reconnaissance platforms, to smaller suicide drones).
Iran’s retaliatory strikes have largely relied on one-way attack drones and solid-fuel missiles. This makes sense, given that Iran’s strategy appears to be to try and overwhelm American and Israeli air-defences, in an attempt to force de-escalation perhaps. The missiles used such as the Fateh-110 and the Kheiber Shekan are known for their maneuverability. The UCAVs used by Iran such as the Shahed-136 and Shahed-137 are low-cost drones priced between 20,000$ to 50,000$, and are deployed in large numbers, making the costs of interception high. The LUCAS and Merops American systems are designed to be more affordable and to make these costs more affordable. Interestingly, although there have been no verifiable reports on this, Iran has also supposedly been using un-weaponised decoy drones, forcing enemy air-defences to waste their interception capabilities on cheap targets that cost less than 5000 dollars.
While more sophisticated missiles and fighter jets retain their place for precision strikes deep in enemy territory, drones, and cheaper, attritiable systems are becoming increasingly central to modern warfare. Many of these systems are also equipped with autonomous navigation systems, which makes them impervious to jamming. Their cost-effectiveness also makes them ripe for attempting to overwhelm enemy defences. The increasing use of these systems is also likely to impact the kinds of air defences that are required- perhaps there is going to be a need for air defences that account for the volume of drone strikes.
In an attempt to understand the use of these various systems, I’ve been working on a tracker (thanks, Claude code!) that looks at drone and missile strikes across West Asia over the course of this war. While this is still very much a work in progress, you can use it to view the kinds of strikes, their origin, whether they were intercepted, and whether there has been an increase or decrease in the intensity of conflict.